It's that time of year again. 2002 is winding down, the holidays are upon us, and anyone with a soapbox or venue is prognosticating about what lies ahead for the home medical equipment industry in the New Year.

This is a fun time of year, in my opinion, and not simply because it's the holiday season. It's because, for every New Year prediction, there's a contradictory prediction.

For example, I read online one industry “expert's” prediction that some form of competitive bidding will be enacted by Congress and the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services next year. Hmmm, so insightful. Then, the next day, at same site, another industry “expert” predicted that Congress would be dealing with too many other health care issues — mainly prescription drugs and physician issues — to pass legislation as large and encompassing as national competitive bidding. Again, Nostradamus has nothing on this guy.

So, whom do you believe? Both have plenty of statistics and supporting documentation for their predictions, and both make compelling arguments for their beliefs. But, honestly, believe whoever's predictions help you sleep better at night, because you have a better chance of predicting that Duke or Rutgers will win the Division I college football national championship next year than trying to predict what Congress and CMS will or won't do. It's like herding cats: You never know what direction they'll choose to go in, or why.

So, with that said, and not wanting to fall into the same trap as my friends mentioned above, I offer the following predictions on what might happen next year:

• National competitive bidding gets enacted: maybe or maybe not;

• CMS pushes through inherent reasonableness authority: possibly; and

• The durable medical equipment regional carriers actually finish what they started with regard to oxygen recertification requirements: might happen.

But there is one thing that I am absolutely sure about: Someone, somewhere, will do something. And you can hang your hat on that.

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Does something look different about HomeCare this month? If you said, “Yes,” well, you're not seeing things, because it does look a bit different. Actually, I believe it looks tremendous, thanks to Cheri Jones, HomeCare's new art director.

Nearly an eight-year veteran artist in the business-to-business publishing industry, Cheri formerly served as art director on Wireless Review magazine, where she garnered three national American Society of Business Press Editors design awards. Cheri also worked on Utility Business magazine, where she won two additional ASBPE design awards.

Please join me in welcoming Cheri. I'm confident you will like the changes.